There is a real menace of a resumption of hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan, a Moscow-defense analyst Pavel Felgenhauer from the Russian paper Novaya Gazeta, Pavel Felgenhauer, said in an interview with RFE/RL.
According to him, "presently, there is a serious threat of a destabilization there. Earlier, neither Baku, nor Yerevan wanted a worsening of the situation. But now everything has changed", claims Felgenhauer.
"The Aliyev's administration has set a serious task and in order to achieve it, it can take a risk and renew hostilities, - the expert noted. Azerbaijan could do it even if hostilities were unsuccessful for it. With such a move, it wants not to return Nagorno-Karabakh but to prevent the ratification of the Armenia-Turkey Protocols.
According to him, the Karabakh conflict could be considered frozen today, however, in his opinion, the Azerbaijani armed forces are unable to ensure a victory for Baku.
"If the Azeris spent their money more efficiently, had a lower level of corruption than in Georgia, the results were probably more obvious.
"However, they spend lots of money today and still are not ready for a new war", he said. "The same way as it is of no use for the Armenians to capture Baku, it is of no use for the Azerbaijanis to seize Nagorno-Karabakh".
Department of Monitoring,
Kavkaz Center
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